📅 Wednesday, 4th March 2026

English Premier League

Full Time Result
2:2
Lost
⚽
Man City
Best Bet
Home Over 0.5 Yellow Card
@1.22
⚽
Nottingham
Win Probability
Home Over 0.5 Yellow Card 85%
85%
Probability of Home Over 0.5 Yellow Card Occurring
Last 5 Fixtures
⚽ Man City
February 28, 2026: Leeds
0-1
Manchester City (Premier League)
February 21, 2026: Manchester City
2-1
Newcastle United (Premier League)
February 14, 2026: Manchester City
2-0
Salford City (FA Cup)
February 11, 2026: Manchester City
3-0
Fulham (Premier League)
February 08, 2026: Liverpool
1-2
Manchester City (Premier League)
⚽ Nottingham
March 01, 2026: Brighton
2-1
Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
February 26, 2026: Nottingham Forest
1-2
Fenerbahce (Europa League)
February 22, 2026: Nottingham Forest
0-1
Liverpool (Premier League)
February 19, 2026: Fenerbahce
0-3
Nottingham Forest (Europa League)
February 11, 2026: Nottingham Forest
0-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers (Premier League)
Home
W
W
W
W
W
Away
L
L
L
W
D
Current Form
Man City
0%Form
0W
0D
0L
Nottingham
20%Form
1W
1D
3L
📊 Head To Head
Man City — 0 W 4 Draw 1 W — Nottingham
80%
20%
December 27, 2025: Nottingham Forest
1-2
Manchester City (Premier League)
April 27, 2025: Nottingham Forest
0-2
Manchester City (Premier League)
March 08, 2025: Nottingham Forest
1-0
Manchester City (Premier League)
December 04, 2024: Manchester City
3-0
Nottingham Forest (Premier League)
April 28, 2024: Nottingham Forest
0-2
Manchester City (Premier League)
📝 Analysis
  • Manchester City Disciplinary Analysis: Home Over 0.5 Yellow Cards
  • While Manchester City is known for “tiki-taka” and possession, Pep Guardiola’s tactical fouling strategy to prevent counter-attacks makes the Home Over 0.5 Yellow Card market a very strong play. Even in games they dominate, the high defensive line often requires a “professional foul” that ends in a booking.
  • 🏟️ Recent Home Disciplinary Breakdown
Date Opponent Result City Yellow Cards Over 0.5 Hit?
Feb 21, 2026 Newcastle 2–1 Win 2 (Dias, Foden) ✅ YES
Feb 14, 2026 Salford City 2–0 Win 1 (Reijnders) ✅ YES
Feb 11, 2026 Fulham 3–0 Win 3 (Silva, Foden, González) ✅ YES
Jan 31, 2026 Everton 2–0 Win 1 (Rodri) ✅ YES

 

  • The “Tactical Foul” Factor: Manchester City leads the league in “foul to stop promising attack” statistics. Because they commit their fouls high up the pitch to stop counters, referees are increasingly quick to brandish a yellow.
  • 85% Home Hit Rate: In the 2025/26 season, City has seen at least one yellow card in 12 of their 14 home Premier League fixtures.
  • Key “Card Targets”: Midfield anchors like Rodri and Bernardo Silva are the primary candidates for bookings. Additionally, with Phil Foden playing with high intensity in the press, he has picked up 2 yellows in his last 3 home starts.
  • Second-Half Surge: Data indicates that 70% of City’s home bookings occur after the 60th minute, often as fatigue sets in or as they look to see out a narrow lead.
  • 💡 Prediction Strategy
  • For Manchester City, the Over 0.5 Yellow Card is almost a “banker” given their tactical setup. If you’re looking for higher odds, Over 1.5 Yellows has hit in 3 of their last 5 home games, offering excellent value for a team that people assume “doesn’t foul.”