📅 Wednesday, 4th March 2026

German Bundesliga

Full Time Result
0:1
Won
⚽
Hamburger SV
Best Bet
Under 11.5 Corners
@1.38
⚽
Bayer Leverkusen
Win Probability
Under 11.5 Corners 50%
50%
Probability of Under 11.5 Corners Occurring
Last 5 Fixtures
⚽ Hamburger SV
March 01, 2026: Hamburger SV
1-2
RasenBallsport Leipzig (Bundesliga)
February 20, 2026: FSV Mainz
1-1
Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
February 14, 2026: Hamburger SV
3-2
Union Berlin (Bundesliga)
February 07, 2026: FC Heidenheim
0-2
Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
January 31, 2026: Hamburger SV
2-2
Bayern Munich (Bundesliga)
⚽ Bayer Leverkusen
February 28, 2026: Bayer Leverkusen
1-1
FSV Mainz (Bundesliga)
February 24, 2026: Bayer Leverkusen
0-0
Olympiacos (UEFA Europa League)
February 21, 2026: Union Berlin
1-0
Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
February 18, 2026: Olympiacos
0-2
Bayer Leverkusen (UEFA Europa League)
February 14, 2026: Bayer Leverkusen
4-0
St. Pauli (Bundesliga)
Home
L
D
W
W
D
Away
D
D
L
W
W
Current Form
Hamburger SV
40%Form
2W
2D
1L
Bayer Leverkusen
40%Form
2W
2D
1L
📊 Head To Head
Hamburger SV — 1 W 0 Draw 4 W — Bayer Leverkusen
20%
80%
February 17, 2018: Hamburger SV
1-2
Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
September 24, 2017: Bayer Leverkusen
3-0
Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
February 03, 2017: Hamburger SV
1-0
Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
September 10, 2016: Bayer Leverkusen
3-1
Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
March 13, 2016: Bayer Leverkusen
1-0
Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
📝 Analysis
  • Hamburger SV vs. Bayer Leverkusen: Under 11.5 Total Corners Analysis
  • As Hamburger SV hosts Bayer Leverkusen on March 4, 2026, the data indicates a match controlled by midfield possession rather than high-frequency set-pieces. While the “Over” market is often tempting for elite teams, the Under 11.5 Corners line offers significant value based on current Bundesliga season averages.
  • 🏟️ Statistical Corner Breakdown (2025/26 Season)
Category Hamburger SV (Home) Bayer Leverkusen (Away) Combined Average
Avg Corners For 3.83 4.18 8.01
Avg Corners Against 5.17 3.75 8.92
Total Match Avg 9.00 7.93 8.47

 

  • High Efficiency, Low Volume: Bayer Leverkusen averages a league-high 60% possession, but they prioritize central ball progression under Xabi Alonso. This leads to high-quality chances but fewer deflected crosses compared to teams that play more vertically.
  • HSV’s Defensive Discipline: At the Volksparkstadion, Hamburg has been surprisingly elite at restricting corner opportunities. Their season average for total match corners (9.00) sits well below the 11.5 threshold.
  • The “Under” Dominance: Statistical tracking shows that 74% of Hamburger SV’s matches this season have ended with Under 10.5 corners. The extra cushion provided by the 11.5 line makes this a particularly safe “anchor” for multi-bets.
  • Away Drop-off: Leverkusen’s corner production drops significantly on the road. While they average 6.0 corners at home, that number falls to just 4.18 away from the BayArena, as they adopt a more cautious, control-oriented approach.
  • 💡 Prediction Strategy
  • Primary Play: Total Corners Under 11.5. The combined match average of ~8.5 corners suggests that even a high-intensity game would likely stay under this 12-corner limit.
  • Safety Net: If you are looking for a more aggressive line, Under 10.5 Corners has hit in the vast majority of both teams’ recent fixtures.
  • Situational Factor: Both teams are coming off 1-1 draws where corner counts were low (under 9 total). In a mid-week fixture where fatigue may play a role, expect a lower tempo that favors the “Under” in set-piece markets.
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